In July 2025, China's tungsten market experienced a robust upward trend, with prices of major tungsten raw materials rising by approximately 13% within the month, a 36% increase compared to the beginning of the year. The average monthly price rose by about 5% month-on-month and surged 35% year-on-year.
The strong performance of tungsten prices in July was driven by multiple factors: tight supply chains, stricter policy regulations, intensified international geopolitical tensions, a steadily improving domestic economic environment, and signals of anti-involutionary measures across various industries. Additionally, reluctance among holders to sell and market speculation further pushed up prices.
However, the rapid rise in tungsten raw material prices has disrupted the cost transmission mechanism within the industry chain. Downstream small and medium-sized smelting and cemented carbide enterprises are facing significantly increased production costs, making operations increasingly challenging. Although cemented carbide companies frequently issued price increase notices, the actual implementation of high-priced orders remained limited. In response, industry associations and cemented carbide enterprises in regions with high industrial concentration have banded together to call for a return to market rationality, promote collaborative development within the industry, and maintain a balance between upstream and downstream sectors of the industry chain.
At the end of the month, rational thinking in the tungsten market increased, trading activity improved, and tungsten prices stabilized at high levels. The upstream-downstream competition entered a "white-hot" stage. During this sensitive period, Chinatungsten Online believes that sharp short-term price fluctuations are detrimental to the long-term stability of the industry. Both rapid price surges and sudden collapses should be approached with caution. In fact, if some holders sell off their inventory en masse to secure profits, causing a sharp drop in raw material prices, downstream enterprises would lose the upstream price support needed to justify their price increases, further weakening their bargaining power. Moreover, companies that purchased inventory at high prices would face greater financial pressure.
While the Central Political Bureau meeting on Wednesday outlined the direction for the 15th Five-Year Plan, it did not mention real estate. However, a key signal from the meeting was "change," emphasizing continued efforts to reduce inventory, stabilize consumption, and counter involution. The meeting noted that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will face an extremely complex situation with both strategic opportunities and risks, as well as increasing uncertainties and unpredictable factors. Therefore, it called for "actively identifying, adapting to, and seeking change" and "enhancing flexibility and foresight". This guidance provides a clear direction for the numerous small and medium-sized enterprises in the tungsten industry chain currently struggling in the quagmire of soaring prices. In the face of a complex and ever-changing external environment, crying, complaining, or throwing tantrums is futile. We must first let go of our old ways, actively pursue refinement and excellence, and embrace innovation and change. By outpacing global giants in countless niche markets worldwide, we can achieve self-transformation and elevate ourselves to new heights.
